Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 2.940068 3.492601 4.108147 4.842956 5.694398 6.648018 7.794987
2025-07-06 2.027057 2.734667 3.614350 4.780148 6.275302 8.118312 10.550585
2025-07-13 1.636183 2.454906 3.569098 5.175888 7.409209 10.375013 14.576718
2025-07-20 1.308405 2.156792 3.406485 5.344664 8.228363 12.303100 18.422397
2025-07-27 1.087125 1.948372 3.308539 5.555416 9.098733 14.374737 22.692948
2025-08-03 0.883490 1.713429 3.112315 5.561605 9.634373 15.991553 26.458586
2025-08-10 0.696516 1.459045 2.827865 5.361588 9.791063 17.016587 29.401051
2025-08-17 0.543798 1.228460 2.534965 5.085851 9.762185 17.712751 31.859482
2025-08-24 0.448193 1.085508 2.371550 5.006570 10.046823 18.936494 35.283824
2025-08-31 0.374720 0.970349 2.237970 4.956094 10.365781 20.236998 38.947731
2025-09-07 0.337264 0.926213 2.239114 5.167078 11.195765 22.518973 44.538385
2025-09-14 0.290957 0.849504 2.155795 5.188698 11.653005 24.154011 49.097045
2025-09-21 0.248533 0.773541 2.063911 5.186240 12.079425 25.809096 53.921259
2025-09-28 0.211295 0.701528 1.967899 5.160528 12.457444 27.417019 58.827884
2025-10-05 0.203111 0.709084 2.067264 5.600607 13.891732 31.264392 68.438628
2025-10-12 0.183444 0.677423 2.061163 5.787866 14.788692 34.102061 76.286088
2025-10-19 0.167771 0.653781 2.071504 6.016581 15.806047 37.282358 85.093142
2025-10-26 0.145997 0.603720 1.999520 6.024062 16.306687 39.408302 91.896264
2025-11-02 0.120585 0.532718 1.852622 5.809357 16.245008 40.301686 96.171830
2025-11-09 0.097320 0.460986 1.686874 5.512964 15.939049 40.614191 99.213498
2025-11-16 0.082987 0.418405 1.601602 5.427729 16.155491 42.130919 105.018959
2025-11-23 0.071448 0.382924 1.531198 5.373447 16.444512 43.840343 111.391065
2025-11-30 0.066675 0.375168 1.552786 5.600374 17.514336 47.498345 122.485191